There is roughly an 80% probability this game will end on/around day forty -- [very] slight bias toward Mr. Russell winning (he has already rolled a single zero), but it's really too early to tell.
Kinda like a more granular kind of Russian Roulette.
Yeah, see, I told mike that 1-in-100 was really too high to make it for 60 days.
I propose a modification:
At 30 days you can either quit, or you can stay in for the next 30. If you choose to stay in, you're locked in for the next 30 days, but we double the payout (so it's $2000 a day after 30 days). Granted, if you drop on day 30 you'd always lose out to the guy who stayed in for 60 at the base rate, but still...sweeten the pot a bit. Your total payout if you win is $90,000.
Personally, it still seems like a no-brainer. Of course, if both of us are still in the hunt at 30 days, it gets a *lot* more interesting. Stay in and win it all, or quit now and hope the other guy chokes in the next 30.
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ninetydegrees
what an interesting game, mike!
on 2004-04-04 09:31 pm (UTC)There is roughly an 80% probability this game will
end on/around day forty -- [very] slight bias toward
Mr. Russell winning (he has already rolled a single
zero), but it's really too early to tell.
Kinda like a more granular kind of Russian Roulette.
-- Sven
Re: what an interesting game, mike!
on 2004-04-05 05:20 am (UTC)Re: what an interesting game, mike!
on 2004-04-05 06:21 am (UTC)Yeah, see, I told mike that 1-in-100 was really too high to make it for 60 days.
I propose a modification:
At 30 days you can either quit, or you can stay in for the next 30. If you choose to stay in, you're locked in for the next 30 days, but we double the payout (so it's $2000 a day after 30 days). Granted, if you drop on day 30 you'd always lose out to the guy who stayed in for 60 at the base rate, but still...sweeten the pot a bit. Your total payout if you win is $90,000.
Personally, it still seems like a no-brainer. Of course, if both of us are still in the hunt at 30 days, it gets a *lot* more interesting. Stay in and win it all, or quit now and hope the other guy chokes in the next 30.
Your thoughts, Mr. Caprio?
Tom
Re: what an interesting game, mike!
on 2004-04-05 08:10 am (UTC)Let's see what happens on day 30.
Re: what an interesting game, mike!
on 2004-04-05 04:36 pm (UTC)