May. 4th, 2007

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I keep reading and hearing Spider-Man 3 reviews, and they universally agree: the franchise is very tired, and though the movie is decent as a sequel, it can't stand on its own, and is sinking under the weight of its predecessors. And I do concur; Sony has a way of stabbing movie franchises in the heart when they should be peaking (see The Matrix). The big budget flicks are so dominated by the money-making imperatives of their great studio masters that there's no room left for art or innovation. That said, Spider-Man 3 probably did the very best it could to get out from under that, but as many others have already said before me - it simply wasn't enough.

At some point, the big studios may learn (perhaps too late) that audiences crave novelty and abhor formula. They don't realize it now because the only metric for new movie performance they have is the box office - and many of them only care (perhaps short-sightedly) about the BO money - but a movie can make more money if it has a long tail, where it maintains strength in a long box office run and then stretches into DVD sales. And the only way to get that is by keeping audiences returning and by having their word of mouth get their friends into the theaters. And that's only done with products that are fresh and novel.

For S-M 3, I am sure that its titanic production budget will offset its returns. It might break even, but it won't make much of a profit. In that regard, I think Pirates of the Carribean 3 will completely outdo Spider-Man 3, and will probably be a better performing franchise overall. Even though Pirates is basically a remake of the first Star Wars Trilogy, it's superficially novel enough to actually entertain its audiences.

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