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Okay, I promise that will be my last Harry Potter-ism.
People seem to be scoffing at the USD 1,000,000,000 estimate for App Store revenue that one analyst has come up with. While it seems like a large number, let me throw a couple other ideas in the mix that maybe won't make it seem so crazy.
First off, there's nothing that says there's going to be a $10 upper limit on the price of iPhone applications. People seem to be vastly underestimating the capabilities of the device because they're thinking of it as a "phone" and not as a computing platform. They think of all the billions of other phones out there, and how dumb and limited they are, and how people pay tiny amounts of money for stupid crap like ringtones and other virtual garbage that carriers have invented to push users into paying for more service.
It's not a phone, people; it's a fucking TRICORDER. Name me one phone that can be used as a barcode scanner. Better yet, name me one of those devices that is a GPS locator, digital audio recorder, video player, magic 8-ball, and barcode scanner, all in one. This is Star Trek technology, for pity's sake. Once people really start developing applications, people are going to really see the possibilities and everything's going to change, again.
People will start developing apps that small to mid-size businesses can use, too, and those will be in the $25-$50 range. Because yes, it would be fantastic to be running a retail store and to instantly check inventory by passing your iPhone over a bar code until it beeps and automatically sync that up to your server with Bonjour or BTTM, and business owners will pay for that kind of tech. Somebody smart will build an all-in-one Point-Of-Sale system with iPhones and a Leopard server; the best retail experience I've ever had was when a person at the 14th Street Apple store let me buy my stuff and leave without having to wait in line - he just took my info on a handheld and swiped my card into it. That's what iPhone 3G's need: a card swiper they can dock into!!
Secondly, the iPhone is entering into 70 other countries - some of whom have stronger currency than the US Dollar! Who's to say that England or other EU coutries won't have renaissances of App Store usage? What if they come up with really smart ways to use the phone and charge GBP 20 per download? I'm not saying that the analysts are counting on a falling dollar when they're making their estimate, but it's a factor to consider.
People seem to be scoffing at the USD 1,000,000,000 estimate for App Store revenue that one analyst has come up with. While it seems like a large number, let me throw a couple other ideas in the mix that maybe won't make it seem so crazy.
First off, there's nothing that says there's going to be a $10 upper limit on the price of iPhone applications. People seem to be vastly underestimating the capabilities of the device because they're thinking of it as a "phone" and not as a computing platform. They think of all the billions of other phones out there, and how dumb and limited they are, and how people pay tiny amounts of money for stupid crap like ringtones and other virtual garbage that carriers have invented to push users into paying for more service.
It's not a phone, people; it's a fucking TRICORDER. Name me one phone that can be used as a barcode scanner. Better yet, name me one of those devices that is a GPS locator, digital audio recorder, video player, magic 8-ball, and barcode scanner, all in one. This is Star Trek technology, for pity's sake. Once people really start developing applications, people are going to really see the possibilities and everything's going to change, again.
People will start developing apps that small to mid-size businesses can use, too, and those will be in the $25-$50 range. Because yes, it would be fantastic to be running a retail store and to instantly check inventory by passing your iPhone over a bar code until it beeps and automatically sync that up to your server with Bonjour or BTTM, and business owners will pay for that kind of tech. Somebody smart will build an all-in-one Point-Of-Sale system with iPhones and a Leopard server; the best retail experience I've ever had was when a person at the 14th Street Apple store let me buy my stuff and leave without having to wait in line - he just took my info on a handheld and swiped my card into it. That's what iPhone 3G's need: a card swiper they can dock into!!
Secondly, the iPhone is entering into 70 other countries - some of whom have stronger currency than the US Dollar! Who's to say that England or other EU coutries won't have renaissances of App Store usage? What if they come up with really smart ways to use the phone and charge GBP 20 per download? I'm not saying that the analysts are counting on a falling dollar when they're making their estimate, but it's a factor to consider.