Could Be The Beginning Of The End For TiVo...

[mik3cap]

I never thought I'd be saying it, because TiVo has hung on for so very long, despite massive competition and a crazy ass market... but I think Apple's announcement of iTV is the first death knell. I suspected they were moving in that direction with the first Mac Minis, but now this is a confirmation; Apple is going to eat TiVo's lunch. Tens of millions of iPods are being sold every year - a complete tie-in between your television and a video iPod is inevitable at this point.

There is no surprise at all that TiVo has announced their TiVo HD box today - but with an $800 price point, nobody is going to be buying one any time soon. Everybody knows that the new frontier is the living room; Microsoft, Sony, and Nintendo know it. Comcast and Netflix know it. TiVo was a pioneer, but being first doesn't guarantee you're going to win. Apple is now making devices that are essentially becoming the next logical generation of home stereo components (plug and play computers, portable media storage devices, cinematic displays, and networking hubs).

I think the PC, if not dead, is now officially terminally ill.

Comments

[jessnut.livejournal.com]

Not everyone is as techie as you who want portable devices and all that stuff. Even for free I have no desire to put shows on a video iPod. I have a TiVo because I want to watch TV shows on my TV. I could get as much enjoyment out of shows like CSI or Bones without being able to see detail because of a tiny TiVo screen.

All TiVo needs to do is add a format through the TiVo desktop to allow people to download shows from the TiVo to any portable video device, where as iPod will have a proprietary format.

[mikecap.livejournal.com]

You could use the same reasoning to say that people would never buy iPods because they want to listen to music on their stereos! Yet there are millions and millions of those out there. I think there are some things people will want to watch on TV, and some things they'll watch on iPods. Sometimes portability takes precedence.

[lucidandawake.livejournal.com]

Bah! Stupid machines emitting their terrible frequencies. Evil, all of them! Evil I say!

Eruah, I really don't know much about TiVo/Ipods as I can't afford either :/

so yeah. i'm just talking for the sake of talking. :)

muwah!

[zonereyrie.livejournal.com]

iTV is nothing but an Apple Media Center Extender. Which means it is just an overpriced, nice looking Media Center Extender.

[mikecap.livejournal.com]

What it is is yet another front TiVo must fight in the War For The Set Top. And it's being fought by an opponent with a huge amount of resources, including: cash money $$; a massive, cult-loyal customer base; huge content deals with big media; and built-in software mechanisms and fully compatible devices for portability of content (there are more iPods with iTunes than TiVos out there in the world).

It's all about content. Content content content. Apple's got it, TiVo don't.

[zonereyrie.livejournal.com]

Apple has crap for video content. Even with the new movie deals. TiVo has anything you receive on your cable/satellite. Especially when you go to HD. How many people want to pay per episode for TV programs? I can TiVo shows, move them to my PC, and have them on my iPod. Except I don't, because I couldn't stand watching TV on that crappy little screen.

Apple doesn't offer most of the content I want. They don't have the majority of the top watched shows for the general public either. They have a long way to go to have content worth talking about. And then it is only useful for people with a fat pipe to pull it down and a PC they're willing to devote a lot of storage on to the content.

Microsoft is also a company with cash money and a massive customer base (WAY larger than Apple), and the software. Media Center Extenders, including the XBox 360, haven't dented TiVo or DVRs in general. Apple has more content, but they're not the first one to have big content deals - there are a number of download services with 'big content deals', and none have taken the world by storm. Even iTunes hasn't done that well on video sales. People just aren't as into downloading video, especially at the poor resolutions to date. They need more of the content to be full SD at a minimum to be acceptable on a TV, but that's minimum.

iTV won't dent TiVo, or the DVR market in general, one bit. Apple needs a real DVR, not some way to sucker people into overpaying for an episode of TV or a movie. And HD content is going to be a problem, that's a LOT of space - around 8GB an hour.

It isn't going to replace cable or satellite (or FiOS, etc). Especially because, to have that fat pipe, you'll need a cable modem or a FiOS type service, and once they have the foot in the door most users will go for bundles with content, phone, etc. Without replacing those content services, it doesn't replace a DVR.

It is a different user, a different market.

I'm a big fan of iTunes and the iPod, I look there first for my music and I use my iPod constantly. But it isn't even worth considering for video, and the new deals haven't changed that.

[mikecap.livejournal.com]

TiVo doesn't "have" content. TiVo is just a box that delivers what the cable and satellite companies give it - every time I ask someone about TiVo, they say to me: "Why would I get a TiVo? I have a DVR with my cable company." And that DVR has on demand video content; another thing TiVo does not have. I'm convinced that access to exclusive content is what is eventually going to determine the set top market.

And I don't think HD is yet part of the equation - it's still at the front of the curve in terms of market adoption, though it is slowly making its way towards the middle.